Ensemble Model Patching
Two main obstacles preventing the widespread adoption of variational Bayesian neural networks are the high parameter overhead that makes them infeasible on large networks, and the difficulty of implementation, which can be thought of as ‘programming overhead.’ MC dropout [Gal and Ghahramani, 2016] is popular because it sidesteps these obstacles. Nevertheless, dropout is often harmful to model performance when used in networks with batch normalization layers [Li et al., 2018], which are an indispensable part of modern neural networks. We construct a general variational family for ensemble-based Bayesian neural networks that encompasses dropout as a special case. We further present two specific members of this family that work well with batch normalization layers, while retaining the benefits of low parameter and programming overhead, comparable to non-Bayesian training. Our proposed methods improve predictive accuracy and achieve almost perfect calibration on a ResNet-18 trained with ImageNet. …

Expected Regret Minimization
Bayesian optimization has demonstrated impressive success in finding the optimum location $x^{*}$ and value $f^{*}=f(x^{*})=\max_{x\in\mathcal{X}}f(x)$ of the black-box function $f$. In some applications, however, the optimum value is known in advance and the goal is to find the corresponding optimum location. Existing work in Bayesian optimization (BO) has not effectively exploited the knowledge of $f^{*}$ for optimization. In this paper, we consider a new setting in BO in which the knowledge of the optimum value is available. Our goal is to exploit the knowledge about $f^{*}$ to search for the location $x^{*}$ efficiently. To achieve this goal, we first transform the Gaussian process surrogate using the information about the optimum value. Then, we propose two acquisition functions, called confidence bound minimization and expected regret minimization, which exploit the knowledge about the optimum value to identify the optimum location efficiently. We show that our approaches work both intuitively and quantitatively achieve better performance against standard BO methods. We demonstrate real applications in tuning a deep reinforcement learning algorithm on the CartPole problem and XGBoost on Skin Segmentation dataset in which the optimum values are publicly available. …

FORECAST-CLSTM
With the highly demand of large-scale and real-time weather service for public, a refinement of short-time cloudage prediction has become an essential part of the weather forecast productions. To provide a weather-service-compliant cloudage nowcasting, in this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical Convolutional Long-Short-Term Memory network based deep learning model, which we term as FORECAST-CLSTM, with a new Forecaster loss function to predict the future satellite cloud images. The model is designed to fuse multi-scale features in the hierarchical network structure to predict the pixel value and the morphological movement of the cloudage simultaneously. We also collect about 40K infrared satellite nephograms and create a large-scale Satellite Cloudage Map Dataset(SCMD). The proposed FORECAST-CLSTM model is shown to achieve better prediction performance compared with the state-of-the-art ConvLSTM model and the proposed Forecaster Loss Function is also demonstrated to retain the uncertainty of the real atmosphere condition better than conventional loss function. …

eWhoring
In this paper, we describe a new type of online fraud, referred to as ‘eWhoring’ by offenders. This crime script analysis provides an overview of the ‘eWhoring’ business model, drawing on more than 6,500 posts crawled from an online underground forum. This is an unusual fraud type, in that offenders readily share information about how it is committed in a way that is almost prescriptive. There are economic factors at play here, as providing information about how to make money from ‘eWhoring’ can increase the demand for the types of images that enable it to happen. We find that sexualised images are typically stolen and shared online. While some images are shared for free, these can quickly become ‘saturated’, leading to the demand for (and trade in) more exclusive ‘packs’. These images are then sold to unwitting customers who believe they have paid for a virtual sexual encounter. A variety of online services are used for carrying out this fraud type, including email, video, dating sites, social media, classified advertisements, and payment platforms. This analysis reveals potential interventions that could be applied to each stage of the crime commission process to prevent and disrupt this crime type. …