Traj-clusiVAT-based TP
Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. In addition, Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km). …

Recurrent Spatial Transformer Networks (RNN-SPN)
We integrate the recently proposed spatial transformer network (SPN) into a recurrent neural network (RNN) to form an RNN-SPN model. We use the RNN-SPN to classify digits in cluttered MNIST sequences. The proposed model achieves a single digit error of 1.5% compared to 2.9% for a convolutional networks and 2.0% for convolutional networks with SPN layers. The SPN outputs a zoomed, rotated and skewed version of the input image. We investigate different down-sampling factors (ratio of pixel in input and output) for the SPN and show that the RNN-SPN model is able to down-sample the input images without deteriorating performance. The down-sampling in RNN-SPN can be thought of as adaptive down-sampling that minimizes the information loss in the regions of interest. We attribute the superior performance of the RNN-SPN to the fact that it can attend to a sequence of regions of interest.
GitXiv …

LOcal Group Graphical Lasso Estimation (loggle)
In this paper, we study time-varying graphical models based on data measured over a temporal grid. Such models are motivated by the needs to describe and understand evolving interacting relationships among a set of random variables in many real applications, for instance the study of how stocks interact with each other and how such interactions change over time. We propose a new model, LOcal Group Graphical Lasso Estimation (loggle), under the assumption that the graph topology changes gradually over time. Specifically, loggle uses a novel local group-lasso type penalty to efficiently incorporate information from neighboring time points and to impose structural smoothness of the graphs. We implement an ADMM based algorithm to fit the loggle model. This algorithm utilizes blockwise fast computation and pseudo-likelihood approximation to improve computational efficiency. An R package loggle has also been developed. We evaluate the performance of loggle by simulation experiments. We also apply loggle to S&P 500 stock price data and demonstrate that loggle is able to reveal the interacting relationships among stocks and among industrial sectors in a time period that covers the recent global financial crisis. …

ProLoNet
Deep reinforcement learning has seen great success across a breadth of tasks such as in game playing and robotic manipulation. However, the modern practice of attempting to learn tabula rasa disregards the logical structure of many domains and the wealth of readily-available human domain experts’ knowledge that could help “warm start” the learning process. Further, learning from demonstration techniques are not yet sufficient to infer this knowledge through sampling-based mechanisms in large state and action spaces, or require immense amounts of data. We present a new reinforcement learning architecture that can encode expert knowledge, in the form of propositional logic, directly into a neural, tree-like structure of fuzzy propositions that are amenable to gradient descent. We show that our novel architecture is able to outperform reinforcement and imitation learning techniques across an array of canonical challenge problems for artificial intelligence. …