Functional Decision Theory
This paper describes and motivates a new decision theory known as functional decision theory (FDT), as distinct from causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. Functional decision theorists hold that the normative principle for action is to treat one’s decision as the output of a fixed mathematical function that answers the question, ‘Which output of this very function would yield the best outcome?’ Adhering to this principle delivers a number of benefits, including the ability to maximize wealth in an array of traditional decision-theoretic and game-theoretic problems where CDT and EDT perform poorly. Using one simple and coherent decision rule, functional decision theorists (for example) achieve more utility than CDT on Newcomb’s problem, more utility than EDT on the smoking lesion problem, and more utility than both in Parfit’s hitchhiker problem. In this paper, we define FDT, explore its prescriptions in a number of different decision problems, compare it to CDT and EDT, and give philosophical justifications for FDT as a normative theory of decision-making. …
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently achieved impressive results for many real-world applications, and many GAN variants have emerged with improvements in sample quality and training stability. However, visualization and understanding of GANs is largely missing. How does a GAN represent our visual world internally? What causes the artifacts in GAN results? How do architectural choices affect GAN learning? Answering such questions could enable us to develop new insights and better models. In this work, we present an analytic framework to visualize and understand GANs at the unit-, object-, and scene-level. We first identify a group of interpretable units that are closely related to object concepts with a segmentation-based network dissection method. Then, we quantify the causal effect of interpretable units by measuring the ability of interventions to control objects in the output. Finally, we examine the contextual relationship between these units and their surrounding by inserting the discovered object concepts into new images. We show several practical applications enabled by our framework, from comparing internal representations across different layers, models, and datasets, to improving GANs by locating and removing artifact-causing units, to interactively manipulating objects in the scene. We provide open source interpretation tools to help peer researchers and practitioners better understand their GAN models. …
LM-Partial Conditional Mutual Information From Mixed Embedding (LM-PMIME)
Causal analysis based on non-uniform embedding schemes is an important way to detect the underlying interactions between dynamic systems. However, there are still some obstacles to estimate high-dimensional conditional mutual information and form optimal mixed embedding vector in traditional non-uniform embedding schemes. In this study, we present a new non-uniform embedding method framed in information theory to detect causality for multivariate time series, named LM-PMIME, which integrates the low-dimensional approximation of conditional mutual information and the mixed search strategy for the construction of the mixed embedding vector. We apply the proposed method to simulations of linear stochastic, nonlinear stochastic, and chaotic systems, demonstrating its superiority over partial conditional mutual information from mixed embedding (PMIME) method. Moreover, the proposed method works well for multivariate time series with weak coupling strengths, especially for chaotic systems. In the actual application, we show its applicability to epilepsy multichannel electrocorticographic recordings. …
lazydata is a minimalist library for including data dependencies into Python projects.
Problem: Keeping all data files in git (e.g. via git-lfs) results in a bloated repository copy that takes ages to pull. Keeping code and data out of sync is a disaster waiting to happen.
Solution: lazydata only stores references to data files in git, and syncs data files on-demand when they are needed.
Why: The semantics of code and data are different – code needs to be versioned to merge it, and data just needs to be kept in sync. lazydata achieves exactly this in a minimal way. …
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27 Thursday Jan 2022
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Functional Decision Theory