Tree of Predictors (ToP)
We present a new approach to ensemble learning. Our approach constructs a tree of subsets of the feature space and associates a predictor (predictive model) – determined by training one of a given family of base learners on an endogenously determined training set – to each node of the tree; we call the resulting object a tree of predictors. The (locally) optimal tree of predictors is derived recursively; each step involves jointly optimizing the split of the terminal nodes of the previous tree and the choice of learner and training set (hence predictor) for each set in the split. The feature vector of a new instance determines a unique path through the optimal tree of predictors; the final prediction aggregates the predictions of the predictors along this path. We derive loss bounds for the final predictor in terms of the Rademacher complexity of the base learners. We report the results of a number of experiments on a variety of datasets, showing that our approach provides statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including various ensemble learning methods. Our approach works because it allows us to endogenously create more complex learners – when needed – and endogenously match both the learner and the training set to the characteristics of the dataset while still avoiding over-fitting. …

Meta Filter Pruning (MFP)
Existing methods usually utilize pre-defined criterions, such as p-norm, to prune unimportant filters. There are two major limitations in these methods. First, the relations of the filters are largely ignored. The filters usually work jointly to make an accurate prediction in a collaborative way. Similar filters will have equivalent effects on the network prediction, and the redundant filters can be further pruned. Second, the pruning criterion remains unchanged during training. As the network updated at each iteration, the filter distribution also changes continuously. The pruning criterions should also be adaptively switched. In this paper, we propose Meta Filter Pruning (MFP) to solve the above problems. First, as a complement to the existing p-norm criterion, we introduce a new pruning criterion considering the filter relation via filter distance. Additionally, we build a meta pruning framework for filter pruning, so that our method could adaptively select the most appropriate pruning criterion as the filter distribution changes. Experiments validate our approach on two image classification benchmarks. Notably, on ILSVRC-2012, our MFP reduces more than 50% FLOPs on ResNet-50 with only 0.44% top-5 accuracy loss. …

Hierarchical Deep Multiagent Reinforcement Learning (Hierarchical Deep MARL)
Despite deep reinforcement learning has recently achieved great successes, however in multiagent environments, a number of challenges still remain. Multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL) is commonly considered to suffer from the problem of non-stationary environments and exponentially increasing policy space. It would be even more challenging to learn effective policies in circumstances where the rewards are sparse and delayed over long trajectories. In this paper, we study Hierarchical Deep Multiagent Reinforcement Learning (hierarchical deep MARL) in cooperative multiagent problems with sparse and delayed rewards, where efficient multiagent learning methods are desperately needed. We decompose the original MARL problem into hierarchies and investigate how effective policies can be learned hierarchically in synchronous/asynchronous hierarchical MARL frameworks. Several hierarchical deep MARL architectures, i.e., Ind-hDQN, hCom and hQmix, are introduced for different learning paradigms. Moreover, to alleviate the issues of sparse experiences in high-level learning and non-stationarity in multiagent settings, we propose a new experience replay mechanism, named as Augmented Concurrent Experience Replay (ACER). We empirically demonstrate the effects and efficiency of our approaches in several classic Multiagent Trash Collection tasks, as well as in an extremely challenging team sports game, i.e., Fever Basketball Defense. …

Probability of Exceedance (POE)
The ‘probability of exceedance’ curves give the forecast probability that a temperature or precipitation quantity, shown on the horizontal axis, will be exceeded at the location in question, for the given season at the given lead time.
http://…5868_calculate-exceedance-probability.htm
https://…/risk.pdf
http://…/INTR.html
http://…/Cumulative_frequency_analysis
http://…/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t
http://…/Survival_function …